Lingering concerns over the risks of new infections despite vaccination uptake 

Pardon the Interruption

This article is just an example of the content available to mallowstreet members.

On average over 150 pieces of new content are published from across the industry per month on mallowstreet. Members get access to the latest developments, industry views and a range of in-depth research.

All the content on mallowstreet is accredited for CPD by the PMI and is available to trustees for free.
Changes in our COVID indices show an interesting divergence: family and professional concerns have both dipped, but personal concerns are slightly higher. Some are wary because many in the public remain unvaccinated, but even with a double jab, we are still vulnerable to catching this virus. Another cause of concern is the risk of co-infection, although fortunately very few cases have been reported thus far. Nevertheless, with flu season just around the corner our panel urges the public to be mindful of the threats posed by newer variants as another wave of infections would land hardest on target society’s most vulnerable. 

 

The line between negligence and ineptness - has Whitehall mismanaged its pandemic response? 

 
Pension professionals remain sceptical of Westminster’s approach to the pandemic. In fact, four out five are ‘somewhat’ or ‘very’ worried by its pandemic guidance while only 18% are not worried at all. Several say that politicians are now downplaying the risks of COVID-19. This has, in the eyes of some, exacerbated the spread of infections by encouraging the public to adopt a blasé attitude about mask wearing. 


 

A return to live events will require robust safety protocols 

 
Over the past two-weeks trustees have started to work more frequently from the office. Now nearly one-fifth are either predominantly working in their office or going in one or two days a week, while 23% regularly commute to attend meetings. 
 
This shift has also coincided with a larger embrace of in-person events, and now over half in our panel are ‘somewhat’ or ‘very’ comfortable going to an event. This is a notable departure from how they felt in our previous survey when over two-thirds (67%) were not comfortable with this idea. However, it is important that attendees are given assurances that sufficient safety protocols will be put in place. For example, events could be scaled down to allow for some semblance of social distancing. Schemes also suggest that event coordinators only allow fully vaccinated people to attend these gatherings. 

 

Paying the piper spells challenging times for the British economy 

 
Most schemes expect to see an uptick in interest rates, inflation and taxes because of the pandemic. The government’s Health and Social Care tax is a key example. Others are worried that the greater demand for raw materials, along with higher transportation costs, will trigger spikes in both inflation and interest rates respectively. 


Governments around the world have also run up a lot of debt to finance their support schemes, but our panel is worried that many businesses could collapse once those are removed. If this happens, it will wreak further havoc on the economy and add another strain on the state’s balance sheet. Given these considerations our research panel says we should not expect to see COVID’s macro-consequences dissipate until 2023. 


 
What do you think will happen with inflation and interest rates, and to what extent will the removal of government support schemes help or harm the economy? Click here to tell us in our bi-weekly survey. 
 
Previous articles in this series: 
 
09/09: COVID fears are on the rise – will vaccines prove resistant to new variants? 
25/08: COVID-19 is here to stay – but is this the new normal?    
11/08: Vaccine uptake has shown promise but we’re not out of the woods yet 
28/07: Mounting concerns driven by rising cases and slowing vaccination rates
14/07: COVID concerns climb to their highest levels since April 
30/06: COVID-19 concerns are down but the delta variant remains a key worry 
16/06: COVID-19 concerns rise as delta variant delays reopening and recovery 
03/06: Rising challenges could disrupt the country’s race towards herd immunity 
20/05: New risks emerge as many come to grips with the spread of new COVID variants 
05/05: COVID concern indices dip to all-time lows as most covenants are left unchanged by the pandemic 
20/04: A silver lining – economy likely to hit pre-pandemic levels in 2022 
07/04: Professional COVID concerns plummet to all-time lows 
25/03: Covid concerns are down, but new risks emerge 
11/03: Concerns over the pandemic’s lasting impact on the world of work are growing 
24/02: Pension professionals urge caution as vaccination efforts continue 
12/02: High vaccinations rates bring down COVID-19 concerns 
27/01: COVID-19 concerns at an all-time high 
13/01: New COVID-19 strain makes pandemic spiral out of control 
 
2020: 
 
15/12: Another COVID summer on the cards despite vaccine rollout 
02/12: Divergent COVID-19 concerns show different realities 
18/11: The risks and consequences of COVID-19 complacency 
04/11: Sharp rise in COVID-19 concerns before the second lockdown in England 
22/10: COVID-19 outbreak to last at least until June 2021 
07/10: Prolonged COVID-19 outbreak is putting pressure on covenants 
23/09: How will the second COVID-19 wave impact UK schemes? 
17/09: Trust in UK government dwindling due to COVID-19 
26/08: Another step in adjusting to COVID-19 uncertainty? 
19/08: COVID-19 outbreak to last at least until February 2021 
12/08: Trustee sentiment around COVID-19 pandemic deteriorates 
05/08: Relaxed attitudes towards COVID-19 threaten economic recovery 
29/07: Does COVID-19 mean the ‘end of the world as we know it’? 
22/07: COVID-19 could weaken covenants and raise taxes and inflation 
15/07: COVID expectations set, except for economic recovery 
08/07: COVID concerns rise as economic outlook improves - why? 
01/07: Lockdown easing raises COVID concerns 
24/06: The UK government’s COVID-19 guidance attracts criticism 
17/06: COVID concerns shift to life after lockdown 
10/06: Will lockdown easing cause COVID concerns to rise? 
03/06: COVID concerns at an all-time low – is the worst over? 
27/05: Personal COVID concern subsides – but this may be a problem 
20/05: UK pension trustees worry there may be no ‘going back’ after COVID 
13/05: UK pension schemes don’t trust the lockdown exit strategy 
06/05: Concerns over duration of COVID lockdown and macro effects intensify 
29/04: Professional COVID concern spikes by 18% as trustees brace for a longer lockdown 
22/04: Macro effects of COVID to last until 2022, with personal concerns up by 10% 
15/04: COVID concerns fluctuate – there is no path to normalisation in sight 
08/04: The magnitude of COVID’s economic impact remains unclear 
01/04: Have UK pensions schemes settled into the ‘new normal’ of COVID-19? 
25/03: Rising levels of concern about COVID and a changing economy 
23/03: What do pension funds think about the economic impact of COVID-19? 
19/03: COVID-19: Government response divides pensions community 
18/03: 96% of pension funds and trustees preparing for a long-term COVID-19 fallout 
18/03: mallowstreet Flash Insights Report: COVID-19 – what’s on trustees’ minds 
 
 
About the COVID Concern Index 
 
This short survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed via the community newsletter. Until 31/08/2020, this was a weekly survey. From 01/09/2020, the survey shifted to a bi-weekly cadence. 
 
The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based. 
 
COVID Concern Index: 
 
 
Expected minimum duration of outbreak: 
 
A methodology change took place on 06/10/2020, affecting data from 20/10/2020 onwards. 
 
Prior to 06/10/2020: 
 
 
Following 20/10/2020: 
 
 
Expected minimum duration of macro effects: 
 
A methodology change took place on 15/04/2020, affecting data from 21/04/2020 onwards. 
 
Prior to 15/04/2020: 
 
 
Following 15/04/2020: 
 
 
Macro rates index: 
 
Sector sentiment index: 
 
 
Concerned about the coronavirus outbreak and its macro implications? Click here to take part in the bi-weekly COVID-19 survey. 

More from mallowstreet