Rising challenges could disrupt the country’s race towards herd immunity
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Rates of professional concerns over COVID-19 are down to all-time lows in our indices. The economic recovery is underway and many in our research panel feel confident that the country is making great strides in its push to achieve herd immunity. Additionally, personal and family concerns are still below the 40s. However, we still do not know whether current vaccines will prove effective against newer variants. Panel members are also anxious that, in the event of another lockdown, many could see their mental health deteriorate.
Despite being less concerned about COVID than they were at the start of the year, there are some red flags on the horizon. Panel members feel increasingly wary that we could be at risk of a third wave of infections. They are therefore not optimistic that the pandemic will end any time soon, estimating that at best we can hope to see its conclusion by the end of December. Another fear is that a third spike in the infection rate will likely force us into another lockdown scenario, which would reverse the economic progress made thus far.
Is Westminster dropping the ball?
Over 80% of our research panel are ‘somewhat’ worried about the way the government is handling the pandemic. The most commonly voiced criticism is that Whitehall’s messaging has been consistently poor throughout the crisis. This is especially true in the case of travel, where many panel members are dissatisfied with the government’s approach. Some worry that the poor guidance is also encouraging many in the public to interpret the rules as they see fit.
The government is adamant that it will stick to its reopening timelines, but our panel concludes that we would be better served if the government were more flexible in its approach. This would allow more time for a scientific evaluation of new risks and help it get a better handle on the situation.
Do not expect a full return to working from the office until later this year
Many report that they are already enjoying the perks of reopening by spending time with their loved ones and friends. The panel also shared that now is a great time to start travelling within the UK, and thinks that, things are finally safe enough that we can expect to start socialising with our colleagues again by the end of this month.
Yet, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the risks of a potential third wave. Our panel concludes that, at minimum, we will not see a full return to working from the office until early autumn. Additionally, our panel suggests that we should not expect to:
Attend a family gathering until July
Hold in-person meetings or attend in-person events until September
Travel abroad until January 2022
Some are gradually embracing a return to the office
A large proportion of pension professionals are predominantly working from home, and as mentioned in the previous section, this is likely to remain the norm until the end of the year. Nonetheless, some are starting to work in the office again; for example, a few in our panel are now either commuting for meetings or using their office for one or two days a week. Nobody is spending most of their work week in the office just yet, but we will keep an eye on these data in the coming weeks to see if this starts to change.
Are we at risk of a third wave and what should the government do to improve its pandemic guidance? Click here to tell us in our bi-weekly survey.
This short survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed via the community newsletter. Until 31/08/2020, this was a weekly survey. From 01/09/2020, the survey shifted to a bi-weekly cadence.
The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based.
COVID Concern Index:
0 = respondents are not worried at all
100 = respondents are extremely worried
Expected minimum duration of outbreak:
A methodology change took place on 06/10/2020, affecting data from 20/10/2020 onwards.
Prior to 06/10/2020:
Lowest possible value = 1 month
Highest possible value = 6 months
Following 20/10/2020:
Lowest possible value = 1 month
Highest possible value = 12 months
Expected minimum duration of macro effects:
A methodology change took place on 15/04/2020, affecting data from 21/04/2020 onwards.
Prior to 15/04/2020:
Lowest possible value = 3 months
Highest possible value = 12 months
Following 15/04/2020:
Lowest possible value = 3 months
Highest possible value = 60 months
Macro rates index:
-100 = all respondents think rates will fall
0 = all respondents think rates will stay the same
+100 = all respondents think rates will rise
Sector sentiment index:
-100 = all respondents think the sector will be a ‘loser’ in the pandemic
0 = all respondents see a neutral outlook for the sector
+100 = all respondents think the sector will be a ‘winner’ in the pandemic
Concerned about the coronavirus outbreak and its macro implications? Click here to take part in the bi-weekly COVID-19 survey.
