Mounting concerns driven by rising cases and slowing vaccination rates 

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Rates of concern are climbing higher in our indices as our panel grows increasingly nervous about COVID-19. One factor driving worries is the uptick in infections across the country, which some contend will worsen now that the government has removed lockdown restrictions. Others are wary of the low vaccine uptake by the youngest eligible members of the public. 



 

Whitehall’s pandemic management falls under scrutiny 

 
Most of our panel members say they are distrustful of the government’s pandemic guidance; 40% are now ‘very’ or ‘extremely’ worried about the way Westminster has handled COVID. Some criticise the government for its confusing messaging and rush to remove restrictions without scientific consensus. Meanwhile, others disapprove of its pandemic approach for what they see as poor management and an inconsistent strategy.


 

Panel members stress the importance of public safety for social engagements 

 
The government officially relaxed restrictions last week, but our panel believes it would be safer to engage in activities by accounting for the level of risk being taken on a case-by-case basis. For example, they view small gatherings with friends, UK travel or even a visit to the pub as much safer than live events or international travel. Furthermore, the panel suggests that we should wait until September before returning to the office or in-person meetings.


 
Our panel does not expect a return to live events until later this year (see above chart). It is interesting that over half are ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ comfortable with the idea of attending an in-person event, but the rest of the panel does not feel this way. They signal however that one way to help make them feel more at ease could be to host events outside or in well-ventilated venues. Additionally, event coordinators should enforce a policy where only fully jabbed staff and participants are allowed entry.


 

Schemes expect the outbreak to last until next spring 

 
The UK has made great inroads with its vaccination campaign, but the rest of the world is largely still lagging. Additionally, many wealthy countries, including the UK, are struggling to overcome vaccine scepticism among young adults. This situation is further strained by the threat of new COVID variants. Because of such factors, our research panel does not foresee an end to the COVID pandemic anytime soon, expecting the outbreak to last until next April.

 
Was the government right to go forward with its reopening plans and how do you feel about returning to the office and live events? Click hereto tell us in our bi-weekly survey. 
 
Previous articles in this series: 
 
14/07: COVID concerns climb to their highest levels since April 
30/06: COVID-19 concerns are down but the delta variant remains a key worry 
16/06: COVID-19 concerns rise as delta variant delays reopening and recovery 
03/06: Rising challenges could disrupt the country’s race towards herd immunity 
20/05: New risks emerge as many come to grips with the spread of new COVID variants 
05/05: COVID concern indices dip to all-time lows as most covenants are left unchanged by the pandemic 
20/04: A silver lining – economy likely to hit pre-pandemic levels in 2022 
07/04: Professional COVID concerns plummet to all-time lows 
25/03: Covid concerns are down, but new risks emerge 
11/03: Concerns over the pandemic’s lasting impact on the world of work are growing 
24/02: Pension professionals urge caution as vaccination efforts continue 
12/02: High vaccinations rates bring down COVID-19 concerns 
27/01: COVID-19 concerns at an all-time high 
13/01: New COVID-19 strain makes pandemic spiral out of control 
15/12: Another COVID summer on the cards despite vaccine rollout 
02/12: Divergent COVID-19 concerns show different realities 
18/11: The risks and consequences of COVID-19 complacency 
04/11: Sharp rise in COVID-19 concerns before the second lockdown in England 
22/10: COVID-19 outbreak to last at least until June 2021 
07/10: Prolonged COVID-19 outbreak is putting pressure on covenants 
23/09: How will the second COVID-19 wave impact UK schemes? 
17/09: Trust in UK government dwindling due to COVID-19 
26/08: Another step in adjusting to COVID-19 uncertainty? 
19/08: COVID-19 outbreak to last at least until February 2021 
12/08: Trustee sentiment around COVID-19 pandemic deteriorates 
05/08: Relaxed attitudes towards COVID-19 threaten economic recovery 
29/07: Does COVID-19 mean the ‘end of the world as we know it’? 
22/07: COVID-19 could weaken covenants and raise taxes and inflation 
15/07: COVID expectations set, except for economic recovery 
08/07: COVID concerns rise as economic outlook improves - why? 
01/07: Lockdown easing raises COVID concerns 
24/06: The UK government’s COVID-19 guidance attracts criticism 
17/06: COVID concerns shift to life after lockdown 
10/06: Will lockdown easing cause COVID concerns to rise? 
03/06: COVID concerns at an all-time low – is the worst over? 
27/05: Personal COVID concern subsides – but this may be a problem 
20/05: UK pension trustees worry there may be no ‘going back’ after COVID 
13/05: UK pension schemes don’t trust the lockdown exit strategy 
06/05: Concerns over duration of COVID lockdown and macro effects intensify 
29/04: Professional COVID concern spikes by 18% as trustees brace for a longer lockdown 
22/04: Macro effects of COVID to last until 2022, with personal concerns up by 10% 
15/04: COVID concerns fluctuate – there is no path to normalisation in sight 
08/04: The magnitude of COVID’s economic impact remains unclear 
01/04: Have UK pensions schemes settled into the ‘new normal’ of COVID-19? 
25/03: Rising levels of concern about COVID and a changing economy 
23/03: What do pension funds think about the economic impact of COVID-19? 
19/03: COVID-19: Government response divides pensions community 
18/03: 96% of pension funds and trustees preparing for a long-term COVID-19 fallout 
18/03: mallowstreet Flash Insights Report: COVID-19 – what’s on trustees’ minds 
 
 
About the COVID Concern Index 
 
This short survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed via the community newsletter. Until 31/08/2020, this was a weekly survey. From 01/09/2020, the survey shifted to a bi-weekly cadence. 
 
The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based. 
 
COVID Concern Index: 
 
 
Expected minimum duration of outbreak: 
 
A methodology change took place on 06/10/2020, affecting data from 20/10/2020 onwards. 
 
Prior to 06/10/2020: 
 
 
Following 20/10/2020: 
 
 
Expected minimum duration of macro effects: 
 
A methodology change took place on 15/04/2020, affecting data from 21/04/2020 onwards. 
 
Prior to 15/04/2020: 
 
 
Following 15/04/2020: 
 
 
Macro rates index: 
 
 
Sector sentiment index: 
 
 
Concerned about the coronavirus outbreak and its macro implications? Click here to take part in the bi-weekly COVID-19 survey. 

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