Mounting concerns driven by rising cases and slowing vaccination rates
Pardon the Interruption
This article is just an example of the content available to mallowstreet members.
On average over 150 pieces of new content are published from across the industry per month on mallowstreet. Members get access to the latest developments, industry views and a range of in-depth research.
All the content on mallowstreet is accredited for CPD by the PMI and is available to trustees for free.
Rates of concern are climbing higher in our indices as our panel grows increasingly nervous about COVID-19. One factor driving worries is the uptick in infections across the country, which some contend will worsen now that the government has removed lockdown restrictions. Others are wary of the low vaccine uptake by the youngest eligible members of the public.
Whitehall’s pandemic management falls under scrutiny
Most of our panel members say they are distrustful of the government’s pandemic guidance; 40% are now ‘very’ or ‘extremely’ worried about the way Westminster has handled COVID. Some criticise the government for its confusing messaging and rush to remove restrictions without scientific consensus. Meanwhile, others disapprove of its pandemic approach for what they see as poor management and an inconsistent strategy.
Panel members stress the importance of public safety for social engagements
The government officially relaxed restrictions last week, but our panel believes it would be safer to engage in activities by accounting for the level of risk being taken on a case-by-case basis. For example, they view small gatherings with friends, UK travel or even a visit to the pub as much safer than live events or international travel. Furthermore, the panel suggests that we should wait until September before returning to the office or in-person meetings.
Our panel does not expect a return to live events until later this year (see above chart). It is interesting that over half are ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ comfortable with the idea of attending an in-person event, but the rest of the panel does not feel this way. They signal however that one way to help make them feel more at ease could be to host events outside or in well-ventilated venues. Additionally, event coordinators should enforce a policy where only fully jabbed staff and participants are allowed entry.
Schemes expect the outbreak to last until next spring
The UK has made great inroads with its vaccination campaign, but the rest of the world is largely still lagging. Additionally, many wealthy countries, including the UK, are struggling to overcome vaccine scepticism among young adults. This situation is further strained by the threat of new COVID variants. Because of such factors, our research panel does not foresee an end to the COVID pandemic anytime soon, expecting the outbreak to last until next April.
Was the government right to go forward with its reopening plans and how do you feel about returning to the office and live events? Click hereto tell us in our bi-weekly survey.
Previous articles in this series:
05/05: COVID concern indices dip to all-time lows as most covenants are left unchanged by the pandemic
About the COVID Concern Index
This short survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed via the community newsletter. Until 31/08/2020, this was a weekly survey. From 01/09/2020, the survey shifted to a bi-weekly cadence.
The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based.
COVID Concern Index:
- 0 = respondents are not worried at all
- 100 = respondents are extremely worried
Expected minimum duration of outbreak:
A methodology change took place on 06/10/2020, affecting data from 20/10/2020 onwards.
Prior to 06/10/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 1 month
- Highest possible value = 6 months
Following 20/10/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 1 month
- Highest possible value = 12 months
Expected minimum duration of macro effects:
A methodology change took place on 15/04/2020, affecting data from 21/04/2020 onwards.
Prior to 15/04/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 3 months
- Highest possible value = 12 months
Following 15/04/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 3 months
- Highest possible value = 60 months
Macro rates index:
- -100 = all respondents think rates will fall
- 0 = all respondents think rates will stay the same
- +100 = all respondents think rates will rise
Sector sentiment index:
- -100 = all respondents think the sector will be a ‘loser’ in the pandemic
- 0 = all respondents see a neutral outlook for the sector
- +100 = all respondents think the sector will be a ‘winner’ in the pandemic
Concerned about the coronavirus outbreak and its macro implications? Click here to take part in the bi-weekly COVID-19 survey.